An ERS analysis of six states counted teachers who change roles inside their districts. The picture is more useful, and more actionable, than a single percentage.
Ask a superintendent how many teachers left last year and you may get a clean number. Ask how that number was calculated and the answer gets more complicated. Some districts count resignations and retirements. Others include teachers who moved to a different school. Few track teachers who took a new role inside the same building.
A new analysis from the consulting group ERS, reported by Education Week on September 3, counts all of it. The study, led by researcher Tara Anderson, covered 2020 through 2025 data from Connecticut, Georgia, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. Average annual turnover in those states fell from 20 percent in 2021-22 to 16 percent in 2024-25.
A single turnover percentage treats three different problems as one, and each needs a different hiring answer.
Three Kinds of Exit
The most useful part of the study is its breakdown. About four in ten teachers who left exited their state or the profession entirely. A significant share moved to other roles within their own schools or districts, and early-career teachers were the group most likely to change districts.
For a district leader, each path calls for a different response. A teacher who leaves the profession creates a vacancy that requires an outside hire. A teacher who moves to a neighboring district is a loss to one employer and a gain to another. A teacher who becomes an instructional coach or takes another role is still in the system, but their classroom now needs a teacher.
The First Three Years
ERS found that teachers in their first three years were at least 7 percentage points more likely to leave the classroom than more experienced teachers. Early-career teachers left their state or the profession at a rate of 10 percent, nearly matching the 11 percent rate for teachers at retirement age.
Districts tend to plan around retirement waves, yet the early-career exit rate is almost as high, and it comes from teachers the district has just spent money recruiting and training. Learning Policy Institute research from 2024 estimates that replacing a single teacher costs between $12,000 and $25,000. Every early exit adds to that bill.
What Texas Shows About Pathways
Texas had the highest turnover among the six states, especially among early-career teachers, and teachers who entered through emergency or alternative certification left faster than those from traditional preparation programs. That does not make alternative pathways a mistake. They bring in people districts could not otherwise hire. It does mean those teachers need mentoring, a manageable assignment, and early check-ins from the first week.
Alternative certification can fill a classroom this year. Support is what keeps the teacher next year.
Special Education Remains the Hardest Role
ERS reports that special education has been the hardest teaching area to staff for more than 30 years, with more than a third of districts reporting unfilled positions in 2024-25 federal data. Many special education teachers move into general education or other roles at their school rather than leaving teaching. Pennsylvania had the lowest special education turnover among the studied states, at 16 percent, a reminder that outcomes vary with state policy and local conditions.
Make the Job Easy to Say Yes To
Pay is only one part of an offer. Teachers weigh commute, class size, administrator support, schedule, and the chance to grow into leadership. A posting that names the mentor program, the planning time, the co-teaching model, or an available stipend gives a candidate a reason to apply and helps them picture the job. Current staff can also serve as recruiters, since a teacher who loves the building can reach colleagues and former classmates in ways a posting cannot.
Measure Three Ways
The practical step is to calculate turnover three ways: exits from the profession or state, moves to other districts, and moves to other roles. Then track first-three-year retention separately. A district that does this will know whether it has a pipeline problem, a retention problem, or a planning problem, and can fund the right fix.
It is worth noting limits. The study covers six states, ERS had no pre-pandemic data to compare against, and Education Week noted that other research shows resignations and retirements remain higher than in 2019. District leaders should treat the findings as a reason to measure their own numbers, not as a national benchmark.
The Budget Side
None of this happens without money. About 80 percent of district budgets go to salaries and benefits, and sourcing is one of the few lines where savings are possible without touching a classroom. Many districts pay for several recruiting platforms at once, such as Frontline Education, SchoolSpring, EDJOIN, K12JobSpot, HigherEdJobs, or PowerSchool, through subscriptions, per-posting fees, or bundled software. Auditing that stack and moving some postings to a free option can release funds for mentoring and protected planning time.
For the full breakdown, read K12 Talent’s analysis of the ERS turnover study. Districts that want to post teaching jobs at no cost can start here.
About the Author: Charlie Isham is the Founder and CEO of K12 Data, Inc., which operates K12 Data, College Leads, and K12 Talent. He has spent more than 15 years building education data infrastructure and has watched how schools, colleges, and the companies that serve them buy for over a decade. He is based in Encinitas, California.
About the Author
